On the surface, the Film Academy’s unveiling Tuesday of the Oscar shortlists in 10 categories represented giant victories for a couple of musicals named Emilia Pérez and Wicked. And they were. Emilia wound wound up with mentions for Best Song (both “El Mal” and “Mi Camino”),

The musical appears twice for best song, along with big names like Pharrell Williams and Elton John. “Wicked” is potentially up for best score.

The announcement of Oscar shortlists in 10 categories is sort of like the disclosure of exit polls on Election Day before balloting has ended: it's the best information yet available about how actual voters are feeling about specific contenders,